Commonwealth Bank has re-cut its house-price outlook, and for the first time this cycle the forecast decline reaches every capital city. CBA now expects national dwelling prices to fall about 9 per cent peak-to-trough — a bigger and broader correction than the bank was pencilling in only months ago.
The revision lands as national values fell 0.9 per cent in August, a fifth consecutive monthly decline that leaves prices 3.6 per cent below their March peak.
The Forecast, City by City
CBA’s cyclical peak-to-trough projections:
- Sydney — peaks at $1.63M (Feb ‘26), then falls ~$211K (~13%)
- Melbourne — peaks at $997K (Nov ‘25), then falls ~$120K (~12%)
- Brisbane — peaks at $1.22M (Apr ‘26), then falls ~$97K (~8%)
- Perth — peaks at $1.08M (Apr ‘26), then falls ~$86K (~8%)
- Adelaide — peaks at $1.02M (May ‘26), then falls ~$81K (~8%)
The Big Change: The Mid-Sized Capitals Turn
The most significant shift in CBA’s outlook isn’t Sydney or Melbourne — it’s the mid-sized capitals. In its June update, CBA expected strong demand and tight supply to prevent outright declines in Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide. Instead, all three have now recorded consecutive monthly falls.
Sydney is already about 7.1 per cent below its February peak, and Melbourne 6.5 per cent below its November 2025 peak. But Brisbane and Adelaide have each posted three straight monthly declines, and Perth four — a sharp reversal from earlier this year, when Perth was still rising 2 per cent or more every month.
What’s Driving It
Two forces sit behind the downgrade. Higher interest rates have kept eating into borrowing power, and the property-tax shake-up has added a second headwind for investors. With auction clearance rates sitting below 50 per cent in the major markets and listings above their five-year average, sellers are being forced to meet the market.
When Does It Bottom?
CBA expects the downturn to run through to about April 2027, taking national prices roughly 9 per cent below their early-2026 peak. After that the bank sees a modest recovery — around 2 per cent national growth over 2027 — but only if the RBA delivers the rate cuts markets are pencilling in for May and August next year.
The Buffer Question
Cotality’s analysis adds a useful layer. Melbourne has the thinnest buffer of any capital — a decline beyond 10 per cent would return its values to pre-pandemic levels after five years of subdued growth. By contrast, Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide are sitting on the gains of a five-year boom: even a 20 per cent fall would only reset Perth to roughly April 2025 levels.
What It Means for Buyers and Sellers
For buyers, the forecast is a reminder that time is on your side: the deepest falls are expected through 2026 into early 2027, so negotiating power should keep building. For sellers, the message is to price to the market now rather than chase a peak that’s already passed.
And for everyone, the usual rule applies — city-wide forecasts hide the suburbs, property types and price points that will hold up better than the median. Working from data, not headlines, is exactly why Mapview exists: check planning permits, comparable sales, title and overlays, and set site alerts before you buy, sell or renegotiate.
Explore Mapview’s planning and sales data to see the full picture on any Australian address.
