The Dream on Hold
Ask Australians what is keeping them awake at night and housing is no longer one item on the list. It is the list.
Research by The Growth Distillery and SEC Newgate, from a survey of more than 2,000 Australians, found housing affordability named as a major concern by 66 per cent of respondents, behind only the cost of living. Among non-homeowners who still want to buy, only 14 per cent believe it is likely to happen anytime soon. More than half of aspiring first home buyers, 51 per cent, say they have given up hope of ever owning a property.
A Stake in the Future
Demographer Mark McCrindle frames what is at stake in terms wider than housing. “If not everyone can have that stake in the future of the nation, then they’re not as likely to be invested in it,” he said. A household shut out of ownership is not only missing an asset. It is missing a reason to care about what happens on its own street.
The Numbers Behind It
Cotality puts the ratio of the median dwelling value to median household income at 8.2, a record high against a 20 year average of 6.8. On a 15 per cent savings rate, a 20 per cent deposit takes 11 years to assemble, and 11.9 years if the target is a house rather than a unit. Servicing a new mortgage takes 45 per cent of gross household income.
PropTrack reaches the same conclusion from the other side. A household on the median income of about $118,000 could afford just 15 per cent of the homes sold over the past year, against 43 per cent four years earlier.
Ownership is thinner than the headline number suggests too. The rate usually quoted, around 66 per cent, measures dwellings occupied by their owner rather than adults who own one. Analysis reported by the ABC puts the share of Australian adults who own the home they live in closer to 52 per cent. Among renters, 68 per cent believe they will be renting for the rest of their lives.
Supply is not closing the gap either. The National Housing Supply and Affordability Council expects around 980,000 homes to be built across the Housing Accord period against a target of 1.2 million, a shortfall of roughly 220,000.
What Buyers Can Still Control
Prices, rates and supply sit with the market. What a buyer controls is how much they know before they commit.
Records that once took a trip to a council office, a paid title search and a call to a conveyancer are now available in seconds. A buyer can see what a suburb has actually been selling for, how long homes sit on the market, what has been approved for development next door, and what a property’s running costs are likely to be once they own it.
The MapView Score does the same job for the intangibles. It reads a property across everyday living, walking distance, building activity and the likelihood of extending, and returns a single score so a buyer can see where a home is strong and where it is exposed before they make an offer.
None of that moves the price. All of it changes what a buyer is willing to pay for a specific house, which is the one decision that remains entirely theirs.
The Road Ahead
Surveys measure mood, and the mood is dark. But the same research that shows Australians walking away also shows what they are walking towards: certainty. The buyers still in the market are the ones doing their homework.
For anyone still saving, the work that costs nothing is the work worth starting now. Know the suburb before you know the house, know the running costs before you know the price, and let the data answer the questions an agent will not.
