What the Modelling Shows
REA Group modelling identifies 69 Melbourne suburbs where typical house values could rise by six figures over five years, on the assumption that the last decade’s growth carries forward. Langwarrin leads the ranking: a typical house there is valued at $875,000 and, compounding at 5.50 per cent a year, would reach $1.144m by 2031 for a gain of $269,000.
Frankston North follows at 5.31 per cent a year, taking $642,000 to $831,000, then Mickleham at $683,000 to $884,000, Balnarring at $1.29m to $1.665m, and Rockbank at $616,000 to $793,000. Coburg North, Baxter and Doveton round out the top eight, with the last two places going to Cannons Creek and Narre Warren North. Narre Warren North carries the largest dollar gain in the group, at $442,000; Cannons Creek’s $207,000 is the smallest. Eight of the ten have a typical value below $1m.
Over ten years the same approach implies 285 suburbs gaining 50 per cent or more, and Melbourne’s million-dollar suburbs almost doubling from 188 to 372. Just 23 of the 395 house markets analysed would stay below $1m.
Modelled, Not Forecast
The distinction matters more than the ranking. Angus Moore, senior economist at realestate.com.au, said the exercise shows what happens if past growth repeats; it does not predict where prices land. The published table carries the same caution: annual growth is a projected compound rate, and the outcomes are modelled rather than assured. Read as a promise, the numbers would mislead.
The Market It Is Modelling
Melbourne is cheap against its own history. Cotality’s October index, covering the market to 30 September, puts the city’s median dwelling value at $780,550, down 0.7 per cent for the month, down 6.2 per cent over the year, and 7.2 per cent below the peak recorded in November last year. Nationally values fell 1.1 per cent in September, a sixth consecutive monthly decline that leaves them 5.2 per cent below the March peak. Sydney is 7.0 per cent lower over the year, with a median of $1,198,596.
That weakness is what makes the arithmetic work: the modelling compounds from today’s lower base, assuming the city’s long-run pattern returns. Mr Moore said the slump had taken the city back to roughly where values sat in mid-2021, which leaves it looking comparatively affordable beside other capitals as interstate migration recovers.
What It Means for Buyers and Owners
For owners the table describes a scenario, not a valuation. For buyers, the strongest modelled growth sits in the cheapest suburbs, and some are already moving: Buyer’s agent Madeleine Roberts, who runs M R Advocacy, reports buying stand-alone Langwarrin houses at roughly $800,000 in the past six months, under the suburb’s typical figure, and cites reductions of $300,000 to $400,000 on properties valued near $2m a year ago.
Two things could change the arithmetic. Rates: Mr Moore expects at least one more rise, with a durable recovery resting on softer inflation and cheaper borrowing. Policy: Victoria’s land tax settings and first-home buyer duty thresholds sit in the middle of an election campaign, with the opposition proposing to lift the duty exemption to $1m from the current $600,000, which tapers to $750,000, before the 28 November poll.
Units are a separate market. Not one of the 271 unit markets analysed for Melbourne reached 25 per cent growth on the five-year window. The headline numbers are about houses, in suburbs where land does the work.
MapView readers can check their own suburb in the app, where the Time to Buy or Sell tile runs on recorded values rather than modelled scenarios.
